I noticed that you are using economic charts from FRED. Do you trust these charts?
I'd rather use my own 'cost of living index' based on what it cost me to live paycheck to paycheck during those turbulent times in the late 75's to mid 95.
What shows on the Monetary Base Chart above, is just a smooth transition to the next year.
By '83, inflation had blown out the cost of living to barely putting food on the table for the family. I was working 3 jobs, just to pay for things, then got fired from all three jobs, because I had no time to sleep. The charts above are really smooth, no relation to reality, whatsoever.
It's been a long time since I remembered those times, it still pisses me off!
So, way before you were born, old history, right?
Use better charts to document your thesis, these SUCK.
Talk to your Mom or Dad, they know what went on then. Not as smooth as these charts depict, by a long shot.
I read charts daily, so I know a bogus chart when I see 2 in a row.
There are tons of issues with inflation data, (including the fact that inflation now is actually higher than it was in the late 70's and early 80's, if you measure it the same way it was measured then. I could do a whole post just on that, but it's not really on topic for me to rant about the Fed.
Neither of these is actually the inflation chart though.
The first chart is velocity. Their measurement is focused on how money moves through accounts, so they have pretty good data, but it wouldn't capture cash moves very well. There would have been more cash transactions in the early 80's, so their measurement would have been less accurate back then.
The second chart is currency in circulation (M0). The treasury tracks money printed accurately, but they have to estimate how much currency is destroyed. The biggest issue with the chart is the scale. Because currency printed went exponential in the last few years, it has the effect of making everything earlier look a lot flatter than it actually was. An annual % change chart or a chart with a logarithmic scale would be more informative for the early years. For the later years, the 'normal' scale makes the absolute volume of new money printed in the last couple of years even more terrifying.
Their data has issues, but it's still the best data currently available for how much money there is and how it moves through the economy.
I agree. Prices have gone crazy in my lifetime. A decent automobile was just $3,000, not $40,000, like today. Still, wages haven't kept up, either. $1.65 an hour then, vs. only $30.00 an hour now, for skilled labor, in the manufacturing sector.
Now, most people don't use cash. Easier to use cards. I still use cash, when the card doesn't work, for whatever reason. Cards can be tracked, while cash is anonymous.
Even with no intrinsic value, paper money is now collectible! That has just happened in the last couple years. A $5 dollar bill from 1914, now sells for $199.00!
Over 60% of dollars in circulation have been printed since 2020.
A logarithmic scale would be more informative, yet hide the scale of modern money printing.
Worst of all, it's a worldwide phenomena, all fiat money is in an "out of control" tailspin.
Joseph,
Just caught up with you again.
I noticed that you are using economic charts from FRED. Do you trust these charts?
I'd rather use my own 'cost of living index' based on what it cost me to live paycheck to paycheck during those turbulent times in the late 75's to mid 95.
What shows on the Monetary Base Chart above, is just a smooth transition to the next year.
By '83, inflation had blown out the cost of living to barely putting food on the table for the family. I was working 3 jobs, just to pay for things, then got fired from all three jobs, because I had no time to sleep. The charts above are really smooth, no relation to reality, whatsoever.
It's been a long time since I remembered those times, it still pisses me off!
So, way before you were born, old history, right?
Use better charts to document your thesis, these SUCK.
Talk to your Mom or Dad, they know what went on then. Not as smooth as these charts depict, by a long shot.
I read charts daily, so I know a bogus chart when I see 2 in a row.
There are tons of issues with inflation data, (including the fact that inflation now is actually higher than it was in the late 70's and early 80's, if you measure it the same way it was measured then. I could do a whole post just on that, but it's not really on topic for me to rant about the Fed.
Neither of these is actually the inflation chart though.
The first chart is velocity. Their measurement is focused on how money moves through accounts, so they have pretty good data, but it wouldn't capture cash moves very well. There would have been more cash transactions in the early 80's, so their measurement would have been less accurate back then.
The second chart is currency in circulation (M0). The treasury tracks money printed accurately, but they have to estimate how much currency is destroyed. The biggest issue with the chart is the scale. Because currency printed went exponential in the last few years, it has the effect of making everything earlier look a lot flatter than it actually was. An annual % change chart or a chart with a logarithmic scale would be more informative for the early years. For the later years, the 'normal' scale makes the absolute volume of new money printed in the last couple of years even more terrifying.
Their data has issues, but it's still the best data currently available for how much money there is and how it moves through the economy.
I agree. Prices have gone crazy in my lifetime. A decent automobile was just $3,000, not $40,000, like today. Still, wages haven't kept up, either. $1.65 an hour then, vs. only $30.00 an hour now, for skilled labor, in the manufacturing sector.
Now, most people don't use cash. Easier to use cards. I still use cash, when the card doesn't work, for whatever reason. Cards can be tracked, while cash is anonymous.
Even with no intrinsic value, paper money is now collectible! That has just happened in the last couple years. A $5 dollar bill from 1914, now sells for $199.00!
Over 60% of dollars in circulation have been printed since 2020.
A logarithmic scale would be more informative, yet hide the scale of modern money printing.
Worst of all, it's a worldwide phenomena, all fiat money is in an "out of control" tailspin.